Canadian conference predicts more extreme weather

Expect more storm surges, floods and other dangers

Extreme weather incidents caused by climate change are likely to become more frequent and more intense, says Robert Hughes of Fredericton, climate change co-ordinator for the provincial Environment Department.

In a bid to inform municipal and community planners what is happening and how to manage and limit future risks from extreme weather, a conference is being held today and tomorrow at the Futures Inn in Moncton.

It is being sponsored by the Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association, Natural Resources Canada, provincial Emergency Measures Association and provincial Environment and Public Works departments.

The two-day event is entitled - Preparing for Change: Managing Risk in a Changing Climate.

A great deal of our province borders on salt water and many people live in coastal communities which will be increasingly vulnerable because of climate change," said Environment Minister Margaret-Ann Blaney.

"This conference is an excellent opportunity for municipalities and planners to learn more about avoiding and managing the risks and costs associated with storms, erosion and flooding," she said.

The conference will feature presentations and discussions about provincial policies, resources and tools related to reducing the risks and impacts of climate change on communities

"This is Canada Water Week which is intended to raise the profile of water issues and initiatives," said Blaney.

"In a changing climate, water is a vulnerable resource and citizens, businesses, stakeholders and all levels of government must continue our adaptive efforts to conserve and protect it," said the minister.

Hughes said the ramifications of climate change include such things as coastal erosion, flooding, roads washed out and tidal surges. He said they not only present a serious safety concern but also can result in huge property losses.

"In a storm surge, you can lose a whole section of a beach or coast literally overnight," he said.

There are a lot of "soft coasts" in the province, such as eastern and northeastern New Brunswick, said Hughes. "They are sandy and easily erodible.

"The soft material can be washed out quickly. And there is a lot of development in these areas," he said. "It is simply a matter of putting the right development at these sights."

The conference is aimed at devising ways for managing risks, said Hughes. He said a hazard does not need to become a disaster.

He said some training and awareness sessions will be provided for the municipal planning people at the conference. The sessions will help them better understand the basics of climate change and how to be prepared for its effects in terms of severe weather conditions, he added.

But he noted that it is a two-way street.

Hughes said the organizers of the event will also use the opportunity to get feedback from the "people on the ground" on how they view climate change and where they think they need guidance. "For instance, do they see themselves as vulnerable," he said.

And it is not just the coastal areas affected by extreme weather caused by climate change, said Hughes.

You only have to look at spring flooding along the St. John and Miramichi rivers, he said. There are also inland erosion, road wash-outs and contaminated water problems that are results of extreme weather, he added.

UK universities link extreme weather to acceptance of climate change

Research by Cardiff and Nottingham Universities, "seeing is believing"

A new study has found that direct experience of extreme weather events increases concern about climate change and willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour.

The research by Cardiff and Nottingham Universities found that members of the public are more prepared to take personal action and reduce their energy use when they perceive their local area has a greater vulnerability to flooding.

Although no single flooding event can be attributed to climate change, Britain has experienced a series of major flood events over the past decade, something that is expected to increase in years to come as a result of climate change.

"We know that many people tend to see climate change as distant, affecting other people and places. However, experiences of extreme weather events like flooding have the potential to change the way people view climate change, by making it more real and tangible, and ultimately resulting in greater intentions to act in sustainable ways," said psychologist Alexa Spence, now at The University of Nottingham.

The researchers and Ipsos-MORI surveyed 1,822 members of the British public to test whether personal experience of flooding had affected perceptions about climate change.

They also looked at whether those perceptions would affect respondents' intentions regarding energy use.

The study revealed that people who reported flooding experiences had significantly different perceptions of climate change, compared to those who had not experienced flooding.

These perceptions were, in turn related to a greater preparedness to save energy.

"This important study provides the first solid evidence for something which has been suspected for some time - that people's local experience of climate related events such as flooding will promote higher awareness of the issue. As a result, it suggests new ways for engaging people with this most important and pressing of environmental issues," said Prof Nick Pidgeon, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, who led the research team.

The new study is published in the first edition of the journal Nature Climate Change this week. (ANI)

Even if Supermoon theory has some merit, danger may have passed

Looking briefly at the pattern of previous catastrophic earthquakes occurring in the period between two supermoons (eg. possibly too much pull and push going on in water), today's extreme supermoon (closest our Moon has been to Earth in 18 years) hopefully means the risk is lowering by the day.

Is there agreement that 2016 represents the next supermooon? I have posted a chart of historical and future supermoons; can anybody break this down and expand it show future and past supermoons and extreme supermoons?

Can any reader provide insight as to whether these dates below are for regular supermoons or for extreme supermoons? Please include data and/or calculations whenever possible!

November 14, 2016
January 2nd, 2018

History of Extreme Super Moons, global flooding / weather effects

Are "SuperMoons" linked to Indonesia and Japan earthquakes/tsunamis?

Historical Supermoons and subsequent weather patterns

Super Moon - A new or full moon at 90% or greater of its closest perigee to Earth has been named a "SuperMoon" by astrologer Richard Nolle.

Extreme Super Moon - Occurs when a Super Moon when passing closest to Earth. Specifically, an extreme "SuperMoon" is when the moon is full or new as well as at its 100% greater mean perigee (closest) distance to earth. By this definition, last month's full moon, this month's and next month's will all be extreme "SuperMoons".

Extreme Super Moons have occurred in 1955, 1974, 1992/1993, and 2005; the 2011 Extreme Super Moon will be the closest since 1993.

2005 Supermoon possibly connected to Dec 2004 Indonesia earthquake?

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was an undersea megathrust earthquake that occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on Sunday, December 26, 2004, with an epicentre off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The quake itself is known by the scientific community as the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. The resulting tsunami is given various names, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Asian Tsunami, Indonesian Tsunami, and Boxing Day Tsunami.

AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. That extreme super moon was a new moon. So be forewarned. Something BIG could happen on or around this date. (+/- 3 Days is my guess)"



1993 Flooding and Weather events

American Midwest Great Flood of 1993 wikipedia webpage

1993 North America Storm of the Century


The majority of experts claim that supermoons are not related to the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, however when we get to March 20th or March 21st, at that point it will be much more prudent to begin assessing whether there is any correlation.


Supermoon related links:

History of Extreme Supermoons linked to Japan, Haiti, Indonesia earthquakes

Extreme Supermoon March 19,2011 information

Supermoon did not cause Japan earthquake: Discover Magazine's Bad Astronomy blog

Wikipedia web page on Supermoons

Astronomical explanations of Mayan 2012 prophecies

Extreme "SuperMoon" on March 19 may trigger tidal waves, earthquakes

The potential effects of the Moon's closest passing to Earth in 18 years may be exaggerated, however it is a fact that on March 19th, 2011, the Moon will illuminate our night sky from just 221,567 miles (356,577 kilometers; closest she has been in 18 years) away, and in addition, it will be full moon!

According to Universe Today:

It is a scientific fact when the Moon is at perigee there is more gravitational pull, creating higher tides or significant variations in high and low tides. In addition, the tidal effect of the Sun’s gravitational field increases the Moon’s orbital eccentricity when the orbit’s major axis is aligned with the Sun-Earth vector. Or, more specifically, when the Moon is full or new.



For those who totally dismiss the idea that 2012 "end of era" predictions may have been astronomically derived, next weekend could be the beginning of a revised world view. For those of us who look to the stars and other heavenly bodies as sometime causes of cataclysmic weather on Earth, it may be wise to seek inland, higher ground first. Then, and only after sanctuary has been found, we can hope and pray that this lunar event is benign.


Supermoon and astronomy related links:

Space.com Article: Will March 19 'Supermoon' Trigger Natural Disasters?


Universe Today: Supermoon or Superhype?


1993 Storm of the Century, 5 days after "supermoon"


Great Flood of 1993, from one month after to seven months after "supermoon"


UPDATE: AS Japanese earthquake / tsunami happened one day after this post, the following link was added on March 15th, 2011:

Historical and future extreme supermoons, links to Japan, Haiti, Indonesia earthquakes

Madison WI Live Webcams; Wisconsin web cameras

Wisconsin GOP escalates attacks against American workers with civic union-busting

1000s of protesters pour into Wisconsin capitol

We interrupt the pondering over 2012 Transit of Venus and other astronomical phenomena to bring you some footage from Earth, specifically the streets of Wisconsin, USA. The big protest is coming this Saturday in Madison, however methinks things could get interesting even before then, as tonight's actions illustrate the Wisconsin GOP is way over the line, and about to get pushed back.


Madison Wisconsin live web cameras

Various Live Traffic Camera feeds from Madison Wisconsin

Lake Mendota webcam in Wisconsin



Milwaukee Wisconsin live webcam feeds

Central and Greater Milwaukee WI live traffic cameras