Chinese Space Station moving forward

BEIJING -- China plans to launch space labs and manned ships and prepare to build space stations over the next five years, according to a plan released Thursday that shows the country's space program is gathering momentum.

China has already said its eventual goals are to have a space station and put an astronaut on the moon. It has made methodical progress with its ambitious lunar and human spaceflight programs, but its latest five-year plan beginning next year signals an acceleration.

By the end of 2016, China will launch space laboratories, manned spaceship and ship freighters, and make technological preparations for the construction of space stations, according to the white paper setting out China's space progress and future missions.

China's space program has already made major breakthroughs in a relatively short time, although it lags far behind the United States and Russia in space technology and experience.

The country will continue exploring the moon using probes, start gathering samples of the moon's surface, and "push forward its exploration of planets, asteroids and the sun."

It will use spacecraft to study the properties of black holes and begin monitoring space debris and small near-Earth celestial bodies and build a system to protect spacecraft from debris.

The paper also says China will improve its launch vehicles, improve its communications, broadcasting and meteorological satellites and develop a global satellite navigation system, intended to rival the United States' dominant global positioning system (GPS) network.

China places great emphasis on the development of its space industry, which is seen as a symbol of national prestige.

Its space principles – including peaceful development, enhancing international cooperation and deep space exploration – are largely unchanged from its previous two documents detailing the progress of China's space missions, released in 2000 and 2006.

In 2003, China became the third country behind the U.S. and Russia to launch a man into space and, five years later, completed a spacewalk. Toward the end of this year, it demonstrated automated docking between its Shenzhou 8 craft and the Tiangong 1 module, which will form part of a future space laboratory.

In 2007, it launched its first lunar probe, Chang'e-1, which orbited the moon, collecting data and a complete map of the moon.

Since 2006, China's Long March rockets have successfully launched 67 times, sending 79 spacecraft into orbit.

Some elements of China's program, notably the firing of a ground-based missile into one of its dead satellites four years ago, have alarmed American officials and others who say such moves could set off a race to militarize space. That the program is run by the military has made the U.S. reluctant to cooperate with China in space, even though the latter insists its program is purely for peaceful ends.

"China always adheres to the use of outer space for peaceful purposes, and opposes weaponization or any arms race in outer space," Thursday's white paper states.

The Chinese government's policy is to "reinforce" space cooperation with developing countries and "value" space cooperation with developed countries. The paper lists cooperation between China and countries including Russia, Brazil, France and Britain, and says of the United States: NASA's director visited China "and the two sides will continue to make dialogue regarding the space field."

China to launch space mission in November

BEIJING — China will launch an unmanned spacecraft early next month that will attempt to dock with an experimental module, the latest step in what will be a decade-long effort to place a manned permanent space station in orbit.

In space, the Shenzhou 8 will carry out maneuvers to couple with the Tiangong 1 module now in orbit.

The ship and the modified Long March-2F rocket that will sling it into space were transferred early Wednesday to the launch pad at the Jiuquan space base on the edge of the Gobi desert in northern China, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Its exclusive report did not specify a date for the launch. Chinese space officials rarely speak to foreign media.

The 8.5-ton, box car-sized Tiangong 1 launched last month has moved into orbit 217 miles (350 kilometers) above the Earth and is surveying Chinese farmland using special cameras, Xinhua said.

It is also conducting experiments involving growing crystals in zero gravity, the report said, citing the launch center's chief engineer, Lu Jinrong.

Following Shenzhou 8, two more missions, at least one of them manned, are to meet up with the module next year for further practice, with astronauts staying for up to one month.


Exploratory missions pave way for future China Space Station

Plans call for launching two other experimental modules for more tests before the actual station is launched in three sections between 2020 and 2022.

At about 60 tons when completed, the Chinese station will be considerably smaller than the International Space Station, which is expected to continue operating through 2028.

China launched its own space station program after being rebuffed in its attempts to join the 16-nation ISS, largely on objections from the U.S. It is wary of the Chinese program's military links and the sharing of technology with its chief economic and political competitor.

Sat Oct 8th: Draconid meteors from Comet Giacobini-Zinner

Meteor shower to be obscured by daylight, full moon

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- Heads-up, meteor fans.

As many as 750 meteors an hour are expected Saturday, as Earth travels through streams of dust and ice from Comet Giacobini-Zinner. The comet passes through the inner solar system every seven years.

But the timing for viewing them in the United States is terrible. These Draconid meteors are expected to peak between 3 and 5 p.m. EDT, so the sun will obscure everything.

NASA space weatherman Bill Cooke suggests popping outside and taking a look once it's dark. You might get lucky if forecasters' timing is off.

And while the meteors will be falling during nighttime in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, a nearly full moon is expected to dull the spectacle there.

"The moon sucks. It's messed up meteor showers this year. Next year will be better," said Cooke, team leader of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.

It just so happens that this year's meteor showers are falling at or near the time of full moons.

Because the Draconids move relatively slowly – 12 miles per second – they're faint and the moonlight "really tends to wash them out," Cooke said in a phone interview.

The Draconids get their name from the constellation Draco, the Dragon.

In 1933 and 1946, the Draconid outbursts were major – observers reported an astounding rate of 20,000 shooting stars an hour. An Irish astronomer described the 1933 episode like a flurry of snowflakes.

The next Draconid outburst after this one will be in 2018.

If you miss this weekend's Draconids, you can catch the Orionids on Oct. 22 – remnants from Halley's Comet, expected to number 20 meteors an hour.

Then there are the Leonids in mid-November – with as many as 100 meteors an hour.

"Unfortunately, the moon will interfere with them as well," Cooke said. "We just don't have any good luck, moonwise, this year."

Heavenly Palace: China to launch space lab next week

BEIJING (Reuters) - China will next week launch an experimental craft paving the way for its first space station, an official said on Tuesday, bringing the growing Asian power closer to matching the United States and Russia with a long-term manned outpost in space.

The Tiangong 1, or "Heavenly Palace," will blast off from a site in the Gobi Desert around September 27-30, adding a high-tech sheen to China's National Day celebrations on October 1, the Xinhua news agency said.

The small, unmanned "space lab" and the Long March rocket that will heave it skyward have been readied on a pad at Jiuquan in northwest Gansu province, Xinhua said, citing an unnamed spokesperson for the country's space program.

It will be the latest show of China's growing prowess in space, and comes while budget restraints and shifting priorities have held back U.S. manned space launches.
The big test comes weeks after its launch, when the eight ton craft attempts to join up with an unmanned Shenzhou 8 spacecraft that China plans to launch.

"The main task of the Tiangong 1 flight is to experiment in rendezvous and docking between spacecraft," said the Chinese spokesperson, who added that this would "accumulate experience for developing a space station."

China's government will hope to set a successful Tiangong mission alongside other trophies of its growing technological prowess, including the launch of a trial aircraft carrier. And the launch, just before China's National Day holiday, is sure to come accompanied by a blaze of proud publicity.

"I would say there's a lot of political pressure to make sure that it's launched before the birthday party," said Morris Jones, a space analyst based in Sydney.
"The real test of Tiangong doesn't come with its flight as a solo mission. The real objective of this mission will come later on when it tries to dock with another spacecraft," said Jones.

"Without rendezvous and docking, you really cannot run an advanced space program. You're confined to launching small spacecraft that just operate by themselves," he told Reuters.


A "TEST-BED" FOR BIGGER AMBITIONS

Russia, the United States and other countries jointly operate the International Space Station, to which China does not belong. But the United States will not test a new rocket to take people into space until 2017, and Russia has said manned missions are no longer a priority for its space program, which has struggled with delays and glitches.

Beijing is still far from catching up with space superpowers. The Tiangong launch is a trial step in Beijing's plans to eventually establish a space station.
"Tiangong-1 is, I think, primarily a technology test-bed," said Joan Johnson-Freese, an expert on China's space program at the U.S. Naval War College on Rhode Island, in emailed answers to questions.

"Technically, it has been compared to where the U.S. was during the Gemini program," she added, referring to NASA's manned space flights in the mid-1960s.

Over the next two years, China will probably attempt a Tiangong mission piloted by astronauts only after two initial missions, Gregory Kulacki, the China Project manager for Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote.

That feat will be followed by the launch of the Tiangong 2 and 3 space labs in following years, and preparations for a space station weighing 60 to 70 tons, wrote Kulacki.

"The real story is that when they eventually get around to building a space station it will look nothing like Tiangong," said Jones, the Australian expert.
"It's a test of a spacecraft that will one day be used as a cargo carrying vessel to a larger space station," he said.

This week, NASA unveiled plans for a deep-space rocket to carry astronauts to the moon and Mars. President Barack Obama has called for a human expedition to an asteroid by 2025 and a journey to Mars in the 2030s.

China launched its second moon orbiter last year after it became only the third country to send its astronauts walking in space outside their orbiting craft in 2008.
It plans an unmanned moon landing and deployment of a moon rover in 2012, and the retrieval of lunar soil and stone samples around 2017. Scientists have talked about the possibility of sending a man to the moon after 2020.

China is also jostling with neighbors Japan and India for a bigger presence in space, but its plans have faced international wariness. Beijing says its aims are peaceful.
"With most space technology dual-use -- of value to both civil and military communities -- anything done by China in space will have spillover to the military, much the same as NASA's technical advancements do in the U.S.," said Johnson-Freese, the expert from Rhode Island.

"Tiangong is not going to immediately or directly provide China any military capabilities," she said.

(Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Jonathan Thatcher)

NEW Circumbinary planet discovery Kepler-16 (AB)-b

Twin Suns and Exoplanets, a rockin' week!

This corner of Our Universe is filled with delight this week by the news of a planet orbiting two suns, and so many newly-discovered exoplanets are surely cream cheese icing on this pineapple-walnut carrot cake. From an excellent report by Rob Simpson on Astronomy Blog:

Over the past week we've had a slew of planet announcements including: 50 candidates discovered with HARPS (on the VLT) on Monday; 23 discovered with WASP on Tuesday; and another 7 announced since yesterday. The discoveries this week have been due to astronomers saving up announcements for the Extreme Solar Systems conference in Wyoming. They've taken the total number of exoplanet candidates up to 684! Will we reach 1000 by the end of the year?

This new system is remarkable because it is the first planet found to orbit a double star system. This is really helpful because it provides many different types of transits (each of the stars transiting each other as well as transits involving the planet) and these allow absolute values for the properties of the system. Normally a transit provides the relative sizes of the star and planet and you then have to use stellar evolution models to estimate the mass of the star and get the absolute sizes.

The paper establishes that the system contains 0.2 and 0.7 solar mass stars that orbit around a common centre of mass every 41 days. They are, in turn, orbited every 229 days by a planet with about 0.33 the mass of Jupiter and about 0.75 the radius of Jupiter.

The stars are separated by about 0.2 AU and the planet's orbit is 0.7 AU so the planet will experience temperature variations depending on which star is closer. Based on models of the star types, it is estimated that the temperature ranges from about 170 - 200 K so this will be a pretty cold world unlike Tatooine. They calculate a mean density close to water but say (based on models of planetary interiors and estimates of the planet's age) it is likely to be about half gas (hydrogen/helium) and half heavier elements (rock/ice?).

They were fairly lucky to spot this system when they did. The inclination of the planet's orbit varies. If their models of the orbit are correct, we will not see a transit of the second star from 2014-2049 and we won't see the planet transit the larger star from 2018-2042. So, if Kepler had suffered a 10 year delay to launch it would never have seen this system during its 3.5 year mission and may have had to wait until the mid 21st century to know about it.


Read the full Rob Simpson Astronomy Blog article on new circumbinary planet and 2011 expolanet discoveries.

Keep the good news rolling!

Are galactic cosmic rays the number one threat to manned spacecraft?

Galactic cosmic rays are one of the most important barriers standing in the way of plans for interplanetary travel by crewed spacecraft.

- Wikipedia, 2011

I am remembering something I read about the two types of space radiation common in our solar system, and how the intensity of this radiation is somewhat predictable using historical data and recent activity. My recall may be faulty, but the premise was something like the expected danger period actually coincided with plans for renewed manned space travel. Now there's the rub ...

Can any readers provide links to articles on this topic? I will do a much longer blogpost when I have some data regarding solar flares and space radiation and the risks to manned space travel. My theory involves promoting the use of robots during the dangerous radiation periods, and resuming human space travel only after the extreme danger fades away.

Any insight into which coming years and decades have the most risk will be greatly appreciated, please post links and info in Comments section below.


from Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galactic_cosmic_ray ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_threat_from_cosmic_rays

NASA: Evacuation of Intl Space Station may be required this Autumn

Russian rocket launch failure imperils future missions

November may result in abandoned Space Station

By Marcia Dunn, The Associated Press

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - Astronauts may need to take the unprecedented step of temporarily abandoning the International Space Station if last week's Russian launch accident prevents new crews from flying there this fall.

Until officials figure out what went wrong with Russia's essential Soyuz rockets, there will be no way to launch any more astronauts before the current residents have to leave in mid-November.

The unsettling predicament comes just weeks after NASA's final space shuttle flight.

"We have plenty of options," NASA's space station program manager, Mike Suffredini, assured reporters Monday. "We'll focus on crew safety as we always do."

Abandoning the space station, even for a short period, would be an unpleasant last resort for the world's five space agencies that have spent decades working on the project. Astronauts have been living aboard the space station since 2000, and the goal is to keep it going until 2020.

Suffredini said flight controllers could keep a deserted space station operating indefinitely, as long as all major systems are working properly. The risk to the station goes up, however, if no one is on board to fix equipment breakdowns.

Six astronauts from three countries presently are living on the orbiting complex. Three are due to leave next month; the other three are supposed to check out in mid-November. They can't stay any longer because of spacecraft and landing restrictions.

The Sept. 22 launch of the very next crew — the first to fly in this post-shuttle era — already has been delayed indefinitely. Russia's Soyuz spacecraft have been the sole means of getting full-time station residents up and down for two years. The capsule is parked at the station until they ride it home.

To keep the orbiting outpost with a full staff of six for as long as possible, the one American and two Russians due to return to Earth on Sept. 8 will remain on board at least an extra week.

As for supplies, the space station is well stocked and could go until next summer, Suffredini said. Atlantis dropped off a year's supply of goods just last month on the final space shuttle voyage. The unmanned craft destroyed Wednesday was carrying 3 tons of supplies.

For now, operations are normal in orbit, Suffredini noted, and the additional week on board for half the crew will mean additional science research.

The Soyuz has been extremely reliable over the decades; this was the first failure in 44 Russian supply hauls for the space station. Even with such a good track record, many in and outside NASA were concerned about retiring the space shuttles before a replacement was ready to fly astronauts.

Russian space officials have set up an investigation team and until it comes up with a cause for the accident and a repair plan, the launch and landing schedules remain in question. None of the spacecraft debris has been recovered yet; the wreckage fell into a remote, wooded section of Siberia. The third stage malfunctioned; a sudden loss of pressure apparently was noted between the engine and turbopump.

While a crew may well have survived such an accident because of safety precautions built into the manned version of the rocket, no one wants to take any chances.

One or two unmanned Soyuz launches are on tap for October, one commercial and the other another space station supply run. Those would serve as important test flights before putting humans on board, Suffredini said.

NASA considered vacating the space station before, following the space shuttle Columbia disaster in 2003. Back then, shuttles were still being used to ferry some station residents back and forth. Instead, the station got by with two-man crews for three years because of the significant cutback in supplies.

The space station's population doubled in 2009, to six. It wasn't until the space station was completed this year that science research finally took priority.
Even if the space shuttles still were flying, space station crews still would need Soyuz-launched capsules to serve as lifeboats, Suffredini said. The capsules are certified for no more than 6 1/2 months in space, thus the need to regularly rotate crews. Complicating matters is the need to land the capsules during daylight hours in Kazakhstan, resulting in weeks of blackout periods.

NASA wants American private companies to take over crew hauls, but that's three to five years away at best. Until then, Soyuz capsules are the only means of transporting astronauts to the space station.

Japan and Europe have their own cargo ships and rockets, for unmanned use only. Commercial front-runner Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, plans to launch a space station supply ship from Cape Canaveral at the end of November. That would be put on hold if no one is on board to receive the vessel.

Suffredini said he hasn't had time to consider the PR impact of abandoning the space station, especially coming so soon after the end of the 30-year shuttle program.
"Flying safely is much, much more important than anything else I can think about right this instant," he said. "I'm sure we'll have an opportunity to discuss any political implications if we spend a lot of time on the ground. But you know, we'll just have to deal with them because we're going to do what's safest for the crew and for the space station."


Official NASA.gov Space Station website

Comet Elenin, asteroid Vesta each in the news

Dawn took this image over Vesta's northern hemisphere after the spacecraft completed its first passage over the dark side of the giant asteroid on July 23, 2011.

NASA's Dawn spacecraft captures images of "Dark Side of Vesta"

A NASA spacecraft orbiting the huge asteroid Vesta is beaming home images that reveal the giant space rock like never before, showing its battered and pockmarked surface in stunning detail.

The new Vesta photos from the Dawn probe, which NASA unveiled today (Aug. 1), include the spacecraft's first full-frame view of the entire asteroid and should help astronomers understand how the space rock formed in the early solar system, researchers said.

"We could not imagine the detail we're seeing and the processes that we're seeing," said Chris Russell, Dawn's principal investigator at UCLA, during the announcement.

News.Yahoo.com story on Dawn spacecraft and Vesta asteroid photographs


NASA article aboutVesta images and dawn spacecraft, on Space.com

Is comet Elenin actually planet Nibiru?

Comet Elenin FAQs by astronomer Ian Musgrave

Astronomer and blogger Ian Musgrave from South Australia has been active in debunking the misinformation and nonsense that is being disseminated about Comet Elenin. He has written several wonderful posts featuring the actual realities of this long-period lump of dirty ice that has, for some reason, attracted the attention of doomsdayers, 2012ers, and end-of-the-world scaremongers. Earlier this week, Ian’s Elenin posts on his Astroblog were taken down by the web host, as someone filed a claim for alleged violation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA). “Given that there is no copyrighted material on these pages, with either material generated entirely by me or links to and citation of publicly available material, I believe this was just a frivolous attack on people countering Elenin nonsense” Ian said. Astroblog was not the only site that was targeted, and thankfully, Ian’s web host agreed that the claim was without merit, and the posts are back online. In the interim, however, Universe Today offered to publish Ian’s excellent “Comet Elenin, a FAQ for the Worried” post, and even though the original is now available again, Ian and I decided to still post this on UT so that more people with questions about Comet Elenin would have the chance to have their worries allayed. Have your questions answered below.

Will Comet Elenin Hit Earth?

No, its closest approach is 0.23 AU on Oct 16, 2011, where 1 AU is the distance from the Earth to the Sun. To put this in perspective, this is only a little closer than the closest approach of Venus to Earth, and roughly 100 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon. This distance is from the latest MPEC ephemeris which is based on over 100 observations from multiple observatories that have been continuously tracking the comet, so it won’t change appreciably.

Surely if Elenin Was Going to Hit the Earth NASA/the Government Would Hush it Up? Which government? The Australian Government, the UK Government? The Italian Government? The South African Government?

Amateur astronomers world wide are following this comet and continually talking to each other. The have the programs to work out where the comet is going. If the comet was coming anywhere near us, the amateur community would be first to know, and there is no keeping them quite. Consider how wide spread the information is about Apophis, which is a real, if extremely marginal, hazard.

Will it Cause Earthquakes, Abnormally High Tides or Other Disasters?

No, Elenin is a mere 3-5 kilometres across and has less than a billionth of the tidal force of the Moon at closest approach (as well as a negligible magnetic field). If the Moon can’t cause the poles to tip, cause massive tidal floods or earthquakes, Comet 2010 X1 Elenin won’t. We’ve been closer to other comets before with no ill effect.

Full Comet Elenin FAQs by astronomer Ian Musgrave


Space.com article on Planet Nibiru

348 days to 2012 Transit of Venus

Did Mayans feel 13th pair of Venus Transits would be catastrophic?

The next Transit of Venus will occur on June 5–June 6 in 2012, succeeding the previous transit on June 8, 2004. After 2012, the next transits of Venus will be in December 2117 and December 2125. Transits of Venus are among the rarest of predictable astronomical phenomena and currently occur in a pattern that repeats every 243 years, with pairs of transits eight years apart separated by long gaps of 121.5 years and 105.5 years.

As there have been 13 pairs of the Transit of Venus since the last major climactic calamity on Earth, that's a cycle of 3,159 years (13 times 243), which takes us back to around 1150BCE.



Wikipedia pins Bronze Age collapse to 1150-1200BCE

The Bronze Age collapse is a transition in southwestern Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean from the Late Bronze Age to the Early Iron Age that some historians believe was violent, sudden and culturally disruptive. The palace economies of the Aegean and Anatolia which characterised the Late Bronze Age were replaced, after a hiatus, by the isolated village cultures of the Ancient Dark Age.

Between 1206 and 1150 BCE, the cultural collapse of the Mycenaean kingdoms, the Hittite Empire in Anatolia and Syria,[1] and the Egyptian Empire in Syria and Canaan interrupted trade routes and severely reduced literacy. In the first phase of this period, almost every city between Troy and Gaza was violently destroyed, and often left unoccupied thereafter: examples include Hattusa, Mycenae, Ugarit.

The gradual end of the Dark Age that ensued saw the rise of settled Neo-Hittite Aramaean kingdoms of the mid-10th century BCE and the Neo-Assyrian Empire.



Wikipedia info on 2012 Transit of Venus


Above Top Secret 2012 Transit of Venus webpage

NASA to send space probe to Asteroid 1999 RQ36

Potential threat to Earth in the year 2182

When it comes to visiting asteroids, NASA doesn't pick run-of-the-mill space rocks. The target of NASA's latest asteroid mission is not only thought to be rich in the building blocks of life, it also has a chance — although a remote one — of threatening Earth in the year 2182.

NASA will launch a sample-return mission to an asteroid in 2016, agency officials announced on May 25. The mission will be called Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification-Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-Rex) and will reach an asteroid called 1999 RQ36 in 2020. The unmanned spacecraft will use a robotic arm to snag some samples. According to the plan, the probe will return these bits of space rock to Earth in 2023 so scientists can study them for clues about the solar system's origin and, possibly, how life may have begun on our planet.


The $800 million OSIRIS-Rex will be the United States' first asteroid sample-return effort and only the second mission in history to retrieve samples from an asteroid. Japan's Hayabusa spacecraft successfully returned tiny grains of the asteroid Itokawa to Earth in June 2010.


Related links:

Space.com article on NASA's 2016 mission to Asteroid 199 RQ36

Why NASA Chose Potentially Threatening Asteroid for New Mission


Sources: Space.com, News.Yahoo.com

Yu55 asteroid to pass near earth just before 2012 begins

Flyby within 200,000 miles of Earth, or 1 Light-second

According to Space.com (May 8th, 2011), An asteroid the size of an aircraft carrier will come closer to Earth this autumn than our own moon does, causing scientists to hold their breath as it zooms by. But they'll be nervous with excitement, not with worry about a possible disaster.

There's no danger of an impact when the asteroid 2005 YU55 makes its close flyby Nov. 8, coming within 201,700 miles (325,000 kilometers) of Earth, scientists say.

So they're looking forward to the encounter, which could help them learn more about big space rocks.

"While near-Earth objects of this size have flown within a lunar distance in the past, we did not have the foreknowledge and technology to take advantage of the opportunity," Barbara Wilson, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., said in a statement. "When it flies past, it should be a great opportunity for science instruments on the ground to get a good look." [Photos: Asteroids in Deep Space]

Getting to know YU55

Asteroid 2005 YU55 is about 1,300 feet (400 meters) wide. It was discovered in December 2005 by the Spacewatch program at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

Because of the asteroid’s size and orbital characteristics, astronomers have flagged 2005 YU55 as potentially dangerous down the road. But the upcoming encounter is no cause for alarm, researchers said.

"YU55 poses no threat of an Earth collision over, at the very least, the next 100 years," said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "During its closest approach, its gravitational effect on the Earth will be so minuscule as to be immeasurable. It will not affect the tides or anything else."

This round space rock has been in astronomers' cross hairs before. In April 2010, astronomers at the National Science Foundation's Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico generated some ghostly radar images of 2005 YU55 when the asteroid was about 1.5 million miles (2.3 million km) from Earth.

But those pictures had a resolution of just 25 feet (7.5 meters) per pixel. The November close pass should provide some sharper images.

"When 2005 YU55 returns this fall, we intend to image it at 4-meter resolution [13 feet] with our recently upgraded equipment at the Deep Space Network at Goldstone, California," said JPL radar astronomer Lance Benner. "Plus, the asteroid will be seven times closer. We're expecting some very detailed radar images."


Space.com article about Yu55 asteroid that will pass close to Earth

Yu55 Asteroid to pass close to Earth in November, 2011

Humungous asteroid will be closer than moon on November 8, 2011

By Leonard David, SPACE.com Space Insider Columnist

Mark your calendars for an impressive and upcoming flyby of an asteroid that’s one of the larger potentially perilous space rocks in the heavens – in terms of smacking the Earth in the future.

It’s the case of asteroid 2005 YU55, a round mini-world that is about 1,300 feet (400 meters) in diameter. In early November, this asteroid will approach Earth within a scant 0.85 lunar distances.

Due the object’s size and whisking by so close to Earth, an extensive campaign of radar, visual and infrared observations are being planned.

Asteroid 2005 YU55 was discovered by Spacewatch at the University of Arizona, Tucson’s Lunar and Planetary Laboratory on Dec. 28, 2005. En route and headed our way, the cosmic wanderer is another reminder about life here on our sitting duck of a planet


“The close Earth approach of 2005 YU55 on Nov. 8, is unusual since it is close and big. On average, one wouldn’t expect an object this big to pass this close but every 30 years,” said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

Yeomans said that with new radar capabilities at Goldstone in California — part of NASA’s Deep Space Network — there is a good chance of obtaining radar imaging of 2005 YU55 down to the 5-meter resolution level. Doing so, he said, would mean obtaining higher spatial resolution of the object than that attained by recent spacecraft flyby missions.

“So we like to think of this opportunity as a close flyby mission with Earth as the spacecraft,” Yeomans told SPACE.com. “When combined with ground-based optical and near-infrared observations, the radar data should provide a fairly complete picture of one of the larger potentially hazardous asteroids,” he said.

Asteroid 2005 YU55 is a slow rotator. Because of its size and proximity to Earth, the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass., has designated the space rock as a “potentially hazardous asteroid.”


Read full article about asteroids risk on Yahoo News

2012 Transit of Venus viewable June 5th / 6th

The following is an article posted March 1st on the National Geographic NewsWatch website, by Victoria Jaggard.

Astronomy in 2012: Watch a Planet Transit With Your Own Eyes!

If you’ve been following the exploits of NASA’s Kepler spacecraft, you probably already know that the mission finds new planets using what’s called the transit method.

In short, Kepler stares at a bunch of stars and records when there’s a periodic dip in a star’s light caused by an object passing in front. With enough data and some careful followup work, scientists can tell whether the passing object is a planet orbiting the star.

So far, Kepler has confirmed 15 new planets using transits, and an additional 1,200 planetary candidates were recently announced. Next year, people around the world will be able to watch a transit of an Earth-size planet with their own eyes.

OK, fine, I admit—the planet in question is our own Venus. But that’s still pretty cool, because Venus transits are exceedingly rare.


Video of 2004 Venus transit, as seen by NASA’s GOES satellite.


The next one will happen in June 2012, and it’ll be visible from only certain parts of the globe (click map below for full screen view).



[UPDATE: For people on the Americas able to see the transit, you'll be looking in the evening hours of June 5. Viewers in Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia will be watching the morning of June 6. Sky-watchers who want to see the whole transit from start to finish need to be in eastern Australia, New Zealand, New Guinea, the Philippines, China, Korea, Japan, the western Pacific islands, Hawaii, Russia, Alaska, and northwest Canada.]

When it ends, there won’t be another Venus transit until 2117.

What follows is an edited transcript of a conversation I had last week with National Geographic grantee Jay Pasachoff, an astronomer at Williams College in Massachusetts and an expert on eclipses and transits.

So what does a Venus transit look like from Earth?

The great [German] astronomer Johannes Kepler in the 17th century predicted that there’d be a transit of Venus in 1631, but nobody had any idea at the time how big Venus would look, because they didn’t know how big it was or how far it was away. In fact, the transit in 1631 wasn’t visible from Europe, and we didn’t have telescopes at that time in California, so it took until 1639 before anybody saw a transit of Venus. When it was seen, it was just a huge surprise that there was a black dot about 1/30 the diameter of the sun that moved across the surface of the sun.

Venus can look about the same size as a big sunspot, but it looks perfectly round and regular, whereas a sunspot has dark inner regions and lighter outer regions, the umbra and penumbra. In fact, one can also see transits of Mercury across the face of sun. But Mercury is both smaller than Venus and farther away from Earth—it’s only 1/30 the area of Venus—and it looks less impressive, unless you’re looking with a really good telescope or spacecraft.

When I saw a transit of Venus in 2004, I used my 500mm telephoto lens to take pictures that show a beautiful black dot, whereas in 2006 we went to Hawaii to observe a transit of Mercury, and when I took a picture with the same lens, the dot of Mercury was barely visible and was much smaller than a sunspot that was on the sun at the time.

Why study Venus transits?

In the original studies, Edmond Halley [of Halley's comet fame] figured out a way of calculating how far the sun is away from Earth, and therefore how big the solar system is, by studying a transit of Venus. Measuring the size of the solar system used to be the most important activity in astronomy in the 18th and 19th centuries, so hundreds of expeditions went all over the world to make observations of Venus transits.

[Editor's note: Capt. James Cook was funded by England's Royal Society to sail to Tahiti and observe a Venus transit in 1769, collecting valuable data for astronomers back home, who were not in the viewing path. The 2012 transit will also be visible in the South Pacific, and travel agencies are already pitching trips to Tahiti's black-sand beaches to "follow in Cook's footsteps" during the celestial event ... I think a field trip is in order!]

Canadian conference predicts more extreme weather

Expect more storm surges, floods and other dangers

Extreme weather incidents caused by climate change are likely to become more frequent and more intense, says Robert Hughes of Fredericton, climate change co-ordinator for the provincial Environment Department.

In a bid to inform municipal and community planners what is happening and how to manage and limit future risks from extreme weather, a conference is being held today and tomorrow at the Futures Inn in Moncton.

It is being sponsored by the Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association, Natural Resources Canada, provincial Emergency Measures Association and provincial Environment and Public Works departments.

The two-day event is entitled - Preparing for Change: Managing Risk in a Changing Climate.

A great deal of our province borders on salt water and many people live in coastal communities which will be increasingly vulnerable because of climate change," said Environment Minister Margaret-Ann Blaney.

"This conference is an excellent opportunity for municipalities and planners to learn more about avoiding and managing the risks and costs associated with storms, erosion and flooding," she said.

The conference will feature presentations and discussions about provincial policies, resources and tools related to reducing the risks and impacts of climate change on communities

"This is Canada Water Week which is intended to raise the profile of water issues and initiatives," said Blaney.

"In a changing climate, water is a vulnerable resource and citizens, businesses, stakeholders and all levels of government must continue our adaptive efforts to conserve and protect it," said the minister.

Hughes said the ramifications of climate change include such things as coastal erosion, flooding, roads washed out and tidal surges. He said they not only present a serious safety concern but also can result in huge property losses.

"In a storm surge, you can lose a whole section of a beach or coast literally overnight," he said.

There are a lot of "soft coasts" in the province, such as eastern and northeastern New Brunswick, said Hughes. "They are sandy and easily erodible.

"The soft material can be washed out quickly. And there is a lot of development in these areas," he said. "It is simply a matter of putting the right development at these sights."

The conference is aimed at devising ways for managing risks, said Hughes. He said a hazard does not need to become a disaster.

He said some training and awareness sessions will be provided for the municipal planning people at the conference. The sessions will help them better understand the basics of climate change and how to be prepared for its effects in terms of severe weather conditions, he added.

But he noted that it is a two-way street.

Hughes said the organizers of the event will also use the opportunity to get feedback from the "people on the ground" on how they view climate change and where they think they need guidance. "For instance, do they see themselves as vulnerable," he said.

And it is not just the coastal areas affected by extreme weather caused by climate change, said Hughes.

You only have to look at spring flooding along the St. John and Miramichi rivers, he said. There are also inland erosion, road wash-outs and contaminated water problems that are results of extreme weather, he added.

UK universities link extreme weather to acceptance of climate change

Research by Cardiff and Nottingham Universities, "seeing is believing"

A new study has found that direct experience of extreme weather events increases concern about climate change and willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour.

The research by Cardiff and Nottingham Universities found that members of the public are more prepared to take personal action and reduce their energy use when they perceive their local area has a greater vulnerability to flooding.

Although no single flooding event can be attributed to climate change, Britain has experienced a series of major flood events over the past decade, something that is expected to increase in years to come as a result of climate change.

"We know that many people tend to see climate change as distant, affecting other people and places. However, experiences of extreme weather events like flooding have the potential to change the way people view climate change, by making it more real and tangible, and ultimately resulting in greater intentions to act in sustainable ways," said psychologist Alexa Spence, now at The University of Nottingham.

The researchers and Ipsos-MORI surveyed 1,822 members of the British public to test whether personal experience of flooding had affected perceptions about climate change.

They also looked at whether those perceptions would affect respondents' intentions regarding energy use.

The study revealed that people who reported flooding experiences had significantly different perceptions of climate change, compared to those who had not experienced flooding.

These perceptions were, in turn related to a greater preparedness to save energy.

"This important study provides the first solid evidence for something which has been suspected for some time - that people's local experience of climate related events such as flooding will promote higher awareness of the issue. As a result, it suggests new ways for engaging people with this most important and pressing of environmental issues," said Prof Nick Pidgeon, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, who led the research team.

The new study is published in the first edition of the journal Nature Climate Change this week. (ANI)

Even if Supermoon theory has some merit, danger may have passed

Looking briefly at the pattern of previous catastrophic earthquakes occurring in the period between two supermoons (eg. possibly too much pull and push going on in water), today's extreme supermoon (closest our Moon has been to Earth in 18 years) hopefully means the risk is lowering by the day.

Is there agreement that 2016 represents the next supermooon? I have posted a chart of historical and future supermoons; can anybody break this down and expand it show future and past supermoons and extreme supermoons?

Can any reader provide insight as to whether these dates below are for regular supermoons or for extreme supermoons? Please include data and/or calculations whenever possible!

November 14, 2016
January 2nd, 2018

History of Extreme Super Moons, global flooding / weather effects

Are "SuperMoons" linked to Indonesia and Japan earthquakes/tsunamis?

Historical Supermoons and subsequent weather patterns

Super Moon - A new or full moon at 90% or greater of its closest perigee to Earth has been named a "SuperMoon" by astrologer Richard Nolle.

Extreme Super Moon - Occurs when a Super Moon when passing closest to Earth. Specifically, an extreme "SuperMoon" is when the moon is full or new as well as at its 100% greater mean perigee (closest) distance to earth. By this definition, last month's full moon, this month's and next month's will all be extreme "SuperMoons".

Extreme Super Moons have occurred in 1955, 1974, 1992/1993, and 2005; the 2011 Extreme Super Moon will be the closest since 1993.

2005 Supermoon possibly connected to Dec 2004 Indonesia earthquake?

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was an undersea megathrust earthquake that occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on Sunday, December 26, 2004, with an epicentre off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The quake itself is known by the scientific community as the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. The resulting tsunami is given various names, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Asian Tsunami, Indonesian Tsunami, and Boxing Day Tsunami.

AccuWeather Facebook fanpage member Daniel Vogler adds, "The last extreme super moon occurred was on January 10th, 2005, right around the time of the 9.0 Indonesia earthquake. That extreme super moon was a new moon. So be forewarned. Something BIG could happen on or around this date. (+/- 3 Days is my guess)"



1993 Flooding and Weather events

American Midwest Great Flood of 1993 wikipedia webpage

1993 North America Storm of the Century


The majority of experts claim that supermoons are not related to the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, however when we get to March 20th or March 21st, at that point it will be much more prudent to begin assessing whether there is any correlation.


Supermoon related links:

History of Extreme Supermoons linked to Japan, Haiti, Indonesia earthquakes

Extreme Supermoon March 19,2011 information

Supermoon did not cause Japan earthquake: Discover Magazine's Bad Astronomy blog

Wikipedia web page on Supermoons

Astronomical explanations of Mayan 2012 prophecies

Extreme "SuperMoon" on March 19 may trigger tidal waves, earthquakes

The potential effects of the Moon's closest passing to Earth in 18 years may be exaggerated, however it is a fact that on March 19th, 2011, the Moon will illuminate our night sky from just 221,567 miles (356,577 kilometers; closest she has been in 18 years) away, and in addition, it will be full moon!

According to Universe Today:

It is a scientific fact when the Moon is at perigee there is more gravitational pull, creating higher tides or significant variations in high and low tides. In addition, the tidal effect of the Sun’s gravitational field increases the Moon’s orbital eccentricity when the orbit’s major axis is aligned with the Sun-Earth vector. Or, more specifically, when the Moon is full or new.



For those who totally dismiss the idea that 2012 "end of era" predictions may have been astronomically derived, next weekend could be the beginning of a revised world view. For those of us who look to the stars and other heavenly bodies as sometime causes of cataclysmic weather on Earth, it may be wise to seek inland, higher ground first. Then, and only after sanctuary has been found, we can hope and pray that this lunar event is benign.


Supermoon and astronomy related links:

Space.com Article: Will March 19 'Supermoon' Trigger Natural Disasters?


Universe Today: Supermoon or Superhype?


1993 Storm of the Century, 5 days after "supermoon"


Great Flood of 1993, from one month after to seven months after "supermoon"


UPDATE: AS Japanese earthquake / tsunami happened one day after this post, the following link was added on March 15th, 2011:

Historical and future extreme supermoons, links to Japan, Haiti, Indonesia earthquakes

Madison WI Live Webcams; Wisconsin web cameras

Wisconsin GOP escalates attacks against American workers with civic union-busting

1000s of protesters pour into Wisconsin capitol

We interrupt the pondering over 2012 Transit of Venus and other astronomical phenomena to bring you some footage from Earth, specifically the streets of Wisconsin, USA. The big protest is coming this Saturday in Madison, however methinks things could get interesting even before then, as tonight's actions illustrate the Wisconsin GOP is way over the line, and about to get pushed back.


Madison Wisconsin live web cameras

Various Live Traffic Camera feeds from Madison Wisconsin

Lake Mendota webcam in Wisconsin



Milwaukee Wisconsin live webcam feeds

Central and Greater Milwaukee WI live traffic cameras

Space Oddity, song lyrics by David Bowie

Space Oddity, by David Bowie

Ground control to Major Tom
Ground control to Major Tom
Take your protein pills and put your helmet on
(Ten) Ground control (Nine) to major Tom (Eight)
(Seven, six) Commencing countdown (Five), engines on (Four)
(Three, two) Check ignition (One) and may gods (Blastoff) love be with you

This is ground control to Major Tom, you've really made the grade
And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear
Now it's time to leave the capsule if you dare

This is major Tom to ground control, I'm stepping through the door
And I'm floating in a most peculiar way
And the stars look very different today
Here am I floatin' 'round my tin can far above the world
Planet Earth is blue and there's nothing I can do

Though I'm past one hundred thousand miles, I'm feeling very still
And I think my spaceship knows which way to go
Tell my wife I love her very much, she knows
Ground control to Major Tom, your circuits dead, there's something wrong
Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you...
Here am I sitting in my tin can far above the Moon
Planet Earth is blue and there's nothing I can do

NASA: Apophis asteroid to pass near Earth in 2012, 2029 and 2036

Russian scientists say chances of Apophis collision with Earth highest in 2036

For those concerned about the effects of Venus during its 2012 Transit, add in the 2012 passing of the asteroid Apophis, and concerns that its orbital path will be affected by Earth, creating a series of closer and closer encounters.

99942 Apophis (pronounced /əˈpɒfɪs/, previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However, a possibility remained that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole, a precise region in space no more than about 600 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis will pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small. Apophis broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered. Its diameter is approximately 270 meters (885 ft).

Recent reports out of Russia say that scientists there estimate Apophis will collide with Earth on April 13, 2036. These reports conflict on the probability of such a doomsday event, but the question remains: How scared should we be?

“Technically, they’re correct, there is a chance in 2036 [that Apophis will hit Earth]," said Donald Yeomans, head of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office. However, that chance is just 1-in-250,000, Yeomans said.

The Russian scientists are basing their predictions of a collision on the chance that the 900-foot-long (270 meters) Apophis will travel through what’s called a gravitational keyhole as it passes by Earth in 2029. The gravitational keyhole they mention is a precise region in space, only slightly larger than the asteroid itself, in which the effect of Earth's gravity is such that it could tweak Apophis' path.
“The situation is that in 2029, April 13, [Apophis] flies very close to the Earth, within five Earth radii, so that will be quite an event, but we’ve already ruled out the possibility of it hitting at that time,” Yeomans told Life’s Little Mysteries. “On the other hand, if it goes through what we call a keyhole during that close Earth approach … then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and smack Earth on April 13, 2036,” Yeomans said.

The chances of the asteroid going through the keyhole, which is tiny compared to the asteroid, are “minuscule,” Yeomans added.

The more likely scenario is this: Apophis will make a fairly close approach to Earth in late 2012 and early 2013, and will be extensively observed with ground-based optical telescopes and radar systems. If it seems to be heading on a destructive path, NASA will devise the scheme and machinery necessary to change the asteroid’s orbit, decreasing the probability of a collision in 2036 to zero, Yeomans said.

There are several ways to change an asteroid’s orbit, the simplest of which is to run a spacecraft into the hurtling rock. This technology was used on July 4, 2005, when Deep Impact smashed into the comet Tempel 1.

Many scientists agree that Apophis warrants closer scrutiny. To that end, in February 2008 the Planetary Society awarded $50,000 in prize money to companies and students who submitted designs for space probes that would put a tracking device on or near the asteroid. Several other groups have studied or plan to study missions to Apophis.


Sources: News.Yahoo.com, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

NASA finds 5 Earth-sized planets in "Goldilocks" zone

If you read the announcement that 68 planets the size of Earth had been discovered, and also that 54 "habitable zone" planets had been found, you were probably wondering how many were BOTH similar in size to Earth and in a habitable or Goldilocks (not too hot, not too cold) orbit.

Here's the answer, courtesy of SpaceDaily.com:

"We went from zero to 68 Earth-sized planet candidates and zero to 54 candidates in the habitable zone - a region where liquid water could exist on a planet's surface. Some candidates could even have moons with liquid water," said William Borucki of NASA's Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, Calif., and the Kepler Mission's science principal investigator.

"Five of the planetary candidates are both near Earth-size and orbit in the habitable zone of their parent stars."

The remaining 49 habitable zone candidates range from super-Earth size - up to twice the size of Earth - to larger than Jupiter. The findings are based on the results of observations conducted May 12 to Sept. 17, 2009 of more than 156,000 stars in Kepler's field of view, which covers approximately 1/400 of the sky.

"The fact that we've found so many planet candidates in such a tiny fraction of the sky suggests there are countless planets orbiting stars like our sun in our galaxy," said Borucki.



Full SpaceDaily.com article on NASA'a Kepler discoveries, by by Michael Mewhinney and Rachel Hoover

Kepler telescope spots 54 exoplanets in "habitable zone"

Of the over 1,200 exoplanets discovered orbiting nearby stars, the Kepler telescope and scientists working with the images have defined 68 that are relatively close in size to Earth, plus 54 in the "habitable zone", also known as the "Goldilocks" zone (not too hot, not too cold). If even one of these is ultra-close to Earth in climate this will prove to be incredibly inspiring news; Car 54 where are you?

These new discoveries mean a tripling from the previously known 400 or so exoplanets (planets outside our solar system, eg. orbiting a different star / sun), and one of these newly-discovered solar systems has at least six exoplanets, the most yet discovered in a solar system other than our own.


Keplar Solar system and Exoplanet links:

NASA'a Kepler telescope makes exciting exoplanet discoveries

Kepler exoplanets discovery excites astronomers

Solar System with 6 Planets found 2,000 light years from Earth

Astronomy: What WILL happen on December 21, 2012

Although there is plenty of speculation going around about what will happen on Earth, the movements of astronomical objects are far more predictable, even moreso than clockwork.

In a detailed yet readable 28-page article entitled The Actual Astronomy of 2012, author Thomas Razzeto explains what would be visible in the sky on December 21, 2012, above where the Mayan Priests lived, near Izapa:

What Will Happen on December 21, 2012

Venus will start things off by rising above the horizon at 4:46 AM. It will be extremely easy to see in the black predawn sky and it will lead the sacred tree on its journey across the sky throughout this special day. The fact that Venus will rise before the sun should not be taken lightly with regards to the question of why the Maya picked 2012. Jim Reed, editor of the Institute of Maya Studies’s newsletter, said:

I think it is important that they chose a date of a winter solstice and a
winter solstice when Venus would rise up before the sun. Venus is there
to witness the rebirth.

Yes, of course the Maya would have had a vision that included the planets, especially Venus, which they tracked with a very precise calendar. The Maya were so concerned about Venus that they could even predict when it would pass as a black dot across the face of the sun. This is called a Venus transit and there will be one in June 2012.

Now, let's get back to the unfolding of the day. At 5:11 AM, the moment of the winter solstice will arrive and the sun will be reborn with the days becoming longer. Mercury will rise at 5:23 AM and it will be visible even with dawn's increasing light. It will be the second object on the sacred tree. Next, the sun will enter our world with a blaze of color at 6:29 AM to become the most important object on the sacred tree. Obviously, by this time, the sky will be so bright that both Mercury and Venus will be obscured from view but nonetheless, they will continue their journey across the sky. Pluto, which is never visible to the naked eye, will rise at 7:03 AM and finally Mars will rise at 8:24 AM, making it the last object on the sacred tree. Notice that the sun will rise 103 minutes after Venus and that Mars will rise 115 minutes after the sun. This means that the sun will be close to the middle of these two planets! (10)

A few hours later, at 10:05 AM, the center of the sun will be exactly on the galactic equator. This is the galactic alignment of 2012 and the peak of the celestial love making! This is the moment of cosmic orgasms!

The Actual Astronomy of 2012 and the Sacred Triple Rebirth of the Sun

While the last paragraph above and the article's title may seem hyperbolic, there are gems in this seemingly well-researched piece.

Here are more links related to 2012 astronomy and astronomical research related to 2012:

Understanding Maya concepts of time, by Astronomy Department, Cornell University

Nasa.gov 2012 Astronomy FAQ

Astronomical origins of Maya Calendar 2012 prophecies

To me it seems likely that the Transit of Venus in 2012 is the most obvious reason the Mayan priests would define 2012 as the end of one era. December 21, 2012 is the date of the Winter Solstice, the lowest point of the Sun in the sky, and thus the darkest day in the final year of the Mayan Calendar. Let's hope it truly is darkest right before the Dawn...

What remains much more puzzling is the reason for the beginning date of the Mayan Long Count Calendar, which occurs 5,125 years before the calendar's end, and about 2,500 years before the calendar's creation. There must have been legends about what happens when certain astronomical patterns appear, and studying the sky revealed the length of the cycle and where we are in it.

According to an article entitled 2012: End of the Fifth Sun by Will Hart, the Mayan Long Count Calendar begins with the "Birth of Venus."

The Maya conceived of time and human history as moving in cycles, small and large. While we use a single calendar to keep track of our annual solar circuit and to mark all of the important days within a year, the Maya used a variety of calendars. The array included a 365-day solar calendar; a 260-day sacred calendar and a Long Count calendar that operated something like an odometer with a zero start date. Unlike the other calendars the Long Count clocked linear time and was programmed to stop after 5,125 years elapsed.

The Long Count was begun at the onset of this current cycle, known as the 5th Sun, in 3114 BC. It will clock the required number of years to complete a full cycle of five suns on December 21, 2012. John Major Jenkins has made the case that this date corresponds to two major alignments, (one between the winter solstice sun and the galactic equator; the other an approximate one between solstice sun and galactic core) and it also completes the Great Zodiac precession cycle of 26,000 years. I am not questioning this thesis however I do wonder if that is all there is to the end of this solar cycle- the 5th Sun?

The Maya began their Long Count on what they referred to as the ‘Birth of Venus.’ Scholars have never been able to determine what the Maya were referring to and neither have alternative researchers. Nevertheless their sacred calendar, the Tzolkin, placed the synodic cycles of Venus in a central role. The 104-year ‘Venus Round’ cycle (2 Calendar Rounds of 52 years each), was a very important ceremonial event as this was the point in time when the solar and sacred calendars realigned with the cycle of Venus.

I need to insert an important numerical progression at this point to provide a basis for the rest of the article. The number thirteen was a root number for the Maya. It is both a prime number and the eighth number in the crucial Fibonacci series that is one source of the Golden Ratio, 1.618.

If we use 13 as the root of the Mayan calendar system we find the following sequence: 13, 26, 39, 52, 65, 78, 91 and 104, which are achieved by simply adding 13 to each succeeding sum. These are the key numbers in the Mayan calendrics and they have a solid scientific footing. Venus was the central component of the Mayan cosmology. It is for good reason that our nearest planetary neighbor is called earth’s sister planet. They have a phase-locked orbital cycle that is based on a 13:8 ratio. That is derived from the fact that Venus revolves around the sun 1.6 times faster than Earth so that 13 Venus revolutions is equal to 8 years.

Why is this important? By establishing Venus as the key component of the sacred calendar they automatically built the Golden Ratio (1.6) into the system since that ratio defines the difference between the two planets orbital cycles. By using 13 as the root number they also included the crucial multiples, or powers, of thirteen - 13,000 and 26,000 - or half as well as the full number of years in the precession. We see that the 5 Suns, each lasting 5,125 years, also add up to the Great Zodiacal Year.
We can break these numbers down in different ways and each will show that there was nothing arbitrary about the Mayan system. We somewhat arrogantly disdain other cultures for being superstitious until we come to the number 13 and our own irrationality surfaces. But let’s examine how deeply embedded this number - as well as 26, 52 and 91 - are in our own calendar. Our year is divided into four seasons that are demarcated by the equinoxes and solstices.

Each of the four seasons is 91 days or 13 weeks long, which gives us a year of 52 weeks. We see the key Maya 13-base numerical progression reflected in our own calendar. Half of a year is 26 weeks. It is beyond the scope of this article to delve into all of the intricacies of the Mayan calendrical and mathematical systems; they were extremely adept in these fields.

What I have uncovered during my decades of research into this topic are two crucial keys to understanding the system: the ‘Transit of Venus’ and solar output cycles. It just so happens that the 2012 end date corresponds to a Venus Transit cycle that occurs twice in the next 10 years in 2004 and then in 2012. As mentioned above Venus was central to the Mayan cosmology. The Long Count began on what the Maya call the “Birth of Venus” so it is perhaps not too surprising that it ends on a Transit of Venus.


Full online article 2012: End of the Fifth Sun by Will Hart



Here is another explanation of the reason for the origin date (interesting to note that the author of the italicized text below, Carl Johann Calleman, believes the end of this creation cycle is October 28, 2011):

The exact Long Count beginning date ultimately is calibrated based on the date of solar zenith in Izapa, which occurs on August 12. (Izapa is the ancient Mayan site in southern Mexico where the Long Count was first devised.)

This solar zenith day was since long, long before the Long Count was implemented, considered as the day of the year when “time began” and considered as a holy date in the location of Izapa. There is thus every reason to believe that the solar zenith was the reason the initial day in the Long Count, 4 Ahau 8 Cumku, was set on this day, although obviously the date of solar zenith in Izapa has nothing to do with the real beginning of the corresponding divine creation cycle. (Not to use the solar zenith date as the beginning of the Long Count would have been considered as heresy. We may make the comparison with the date of Christmas, which was taken from old solstice celebrations, and has not been changed, despite the fact that few, if any, believes that Jesus was born then).

If Calleman is correct about the reason for August 12, 3114 BC, being chosen as the commencement date for the Maya Calendar, then that puts even more emphasis on the end date being related to the upcoming 2012 Transit of Venus.

As the commencement date of the Maya Long Count Calendar is most often pegged as 3,114 BC, it is instructive to see if there were any Transits of Venus or other significant astronomical events during that year or shortly thereafter.

It turns out there were Transits of Venus in 3108 BC and 3100 BC (see historical dates of Transits of Venus), so this particular transit pair may have been perceived as the end of the era that took place before the one we are living in.

Here's a comment (from someone named Anonymous Coward...) about what happened to the Earth's climate around that time, through analysis of Indus Valley:

First I have made a time calibration: 3500 BP radiocarbon calibrated as 2200 BC, 4300 BP radiocarbon calibrated as 3100 BC (based on Schove: Sunspots plus several articles in Nature). Place: near the mouth of Kalinadi river.

Evergreen forest dropped from nearly 30% from 3100 BC to 15-20% in 2800 BC. The next drop was from nearly 20% in 2200 BC to below 10% in the next centuries. At the same time periods savanna increased from 20% to 40%, then remained at that level until 2200 BC, when there began a rapid increase, which leveled at 60% in 2 centuries. The most dramatic shifts are seen in delta(13)C: A sudden change from the level of 23 o/oo to 23.5 in 3100 BC and a rapid return to 23, and a new sudden change to 23.5 at 2200 BC and then a sharp change that eventually levels off to today´s value of 21.5 o/oo some thousand years later.

Source: GodlikeProductions.com post regarding ancient climate catastrophes


2012 prophecy and Mayan Calendar links

Transits of Venus dates from 5000 BC / BCE to 10,000 AD / CE

Worldwide climate catastrophe circa 3123 bc

Meteorites and the Mayan Long Count Calendar

Is new exoplanet Kepler 10b a "habitable" rival to Gliese 581g?

With NASA's announcement of the discovery of rocky planet Kepler 10b, the first thing that came to my mind was "is it habitable?"



NASA’s Kepler Mission is using transit photometry to determine the frequency
of Earth-sized planets in or near the habitable zone of Sun-like stars (sometimes referred to as the "Goldilocks Zone", not too hot, not too cold). The
mission reached a milestone towards meeting that goal with the discovery of its
first rocky planet, Kepler-10b.





NASA announcement of discovery of new exoplanet Kepler 10-b

NASA video explaining discovery of new planet Kepler 10b

Wikipedia page of new exoplanet Kepler 10 b

Gliese 581g Zarmina's World news roundup

Here are recent news stories and articles about the most Earth-like planet yet discovered, GJ581g, aka as Gliese 581g and Zarmina's World, named after the wife of the planet's discoverer.

BBC article on Gliese 581g, Earth-like planet

Gliese 581g discovery report Sep 2010 by Vogt et al

Scientific American article on Gliese 581g research and conclusions

Wikipedia page on Gliese 581 g Zarmina's World

MSNBC Mike Wall article on Gliese 581g as habitable planet